With Its 'Axis Of Resistance' Lying In Tatters, Will Iran Rush For Nuclear Bomb?
By David Brummer/WND News Center December 10, 2024
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The fallout from the dramatic events over the last 72 hours or so in Syria continued Tuesday, as the future shape of the entire Middle East is still uncertain and lies hugely in the balance.
With so many questions on everyone's minds, one of the most pressing is whether Iran will now go all-out, release the shackles, and try to develop a nuclear bomb.
Alarm bells are already beginning to ring loudly among some in the international community. Indeed, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, the autonomous nuclear watchdog, which reports to the United Nations General Assembly and also U.N. Security Council, recently warned Iran is poised to "dramatically" increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium. Already noted as long in June, this was a process it was already undertaking.
However, due to the current situation in Syria and the break-up of its lengthy land bridge, which connected the Mediterranean Sea to Tehran, and afforded it access to an unparalleled weapons delivery highway - and has left it somewhat isolated - there are fears it will accelerate its drive for the bomb.
One element of the increased stockpile of the weapons-grade uranium, which many missed, but the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, or FDD, did not, is how it is tied to the Islamic Republic's space program.
Indeed, the FDD noted last week how "Iran claimed its space program successfully launched its heaviest payload yet into space on Dec. 6, including a device capable of repositioning other satellites. The launch utilized the domestically produced, two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh rocket carrying the payload into orbit with a high point of 255 miles above Earth."
The importance of this, which a U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence also noted with alarm, "would shorten the timeline to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) because of the shared technologies within space launch and ballistic missile capabilities."
If Assad's fall was a shock to Western intelligence officials - including Israel and U.S. - it must also have come as a surprise to his Iranian backers. Indeed, on Dec. 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was filmed having a fast-food dinner in Damascus, having just met with the now-deposed Syrian leader. He was also due to speak at the Doha Forum in Qatar on Sunday, but left early because of the pace of events in Syria.
The dismantling of the Assad regime also spells - for now at least - the end of a more than 20-year Iranian foreign policy goal of being able to join up Tehran-backed proxy groups - with the twin goal of annihilating the State of Israel, and furthering its hegemonic aims in the Mideast.
Syria was Iran's corridor for delivering logistical and armed support to the Lebanese group Hezbollah and to Hamas in Gaza, which helped ensure the security of Axis of Resistance powers while allowing Iran to exercise its influence - and deterrent capabilities - far from its own borders. "Syria represented a springboard for the Iranian regime to project its influence as far as the Mediterranean, and that has disappeared," notes Jonathan Piron, a historian and Iran specialist at the Etopia research centre in Brussels.
"The Axis of Resistance as we knew it no longer exists," he says. "With the Israeli operation in Lebanon, Hezbollah is no more. Its capacity for action has been significantly diminished, in any case. Now, Assad's Syria no longer exists, either. The main pillars of the Axis of Resistance have disappeared. What is left? The Houthis [in Yemen], but they have their own agenda and are far from Tehran. And the Iraqi militias, which have refused to intervene in recent days on Syrian soil to come to the aid of Bashar al-Assad."
The destruction of the Axis of Resistance is a direct consequence of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7 and Israel's subsequent offensive, says David Rigoulet-Roze, associate research fellow and Middle East expert at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
"The first riposte was the war in Gaza against Hamas in immediate response to the tragedy of October 7. This was undoubtedly the first salvo in a larger game plan," Rigoulet-Roze explains. "The second was the war of attrition against Lebanon's Hezbollah, which became the first Iranian proxy to intervene by firing rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas starting on October 8."
"The fall of Bashar al-Assad could be seen as the third stage, triggered by the two previous ones," he says.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have anticipated this outcome or at least hoped for it, according to Rigoulet-Roze, who notes that Netanyahu began speaking of a grand redrawing of the region very early on.
"What Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible ... we are going to change the Middle East," Netanyahu said on October 9, just two days after the attack on Israel.
The fall of Assad can be partly attributed to Iran's weakened state, brought on by the strategic crippling of its proxies - first and foremost, Hezbollah.
"It is usually Hezbollah that fights to defend Iranian interests by protecting Bashar al-Assad," notes Rigoulet-Roze. "But Hezbollah had to repatriate many of its troops to Lebanon for its battle with Israel. So Assad found himself a bit like a 'naked king', especially since Russia was no longer able to save the Syrian regime because of its involvement in Ukraine."
For many years, the Islamic Republic of Iran built its deterrent capability on a network of alliances extending all the way from Tehran to Beirut on the Mediterranean Sea. This significantly expanded Iran's influence by allowing it to brandish the threat of retaliation from Hezbollah or Iraqi Shiite militias against any possible aggression, notably from archenemy Israel.
"Iran finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness; its security perimeter is now restricted to its actual borders," says Piron. "The Iranian regime will have to rethink its security."
And that could introduce even more new dynamics to the region. Given the new circumstances Iran now finds itself in, Tehran may look to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons to ensure that its regime does not suffer the same fate as Assad's.
There are two other fairly obvious reasons for a potential dash for the bomb. As the failed Biden administration runs on the final fumes of its own incompetence, the Trump 2.0 team - no friend of the mullahs in Tehran - is waiting in the wings for only another 40 days or so.
Trump clearly has unfinished business with Iran, the highly credible reports of the Islamic Republic's attempts - or wishes at best - to suborn his assassination not being the least of them. Trump could point - with the backing of significant evidence - that his maximum pressure campaign was reaping dividends, in the way the Iranian economy was struggling and therefore left Tehran with less room to maneuver with regard to its destabilizing influence in the region. One can draw a direct causal link from the Biden-Harris administration releasing billions of dollars of cash, and the precipitous uptick in Iran's meddling.
The other pressing issue - which is not directly related to Trump's return to office, but could be - is the knowledge - both in Iran and outside - that Israel's late-October attack did indeed leave it almost completely vulnerable to attack, up to and including its nuclear sites.
Trump alluded to it in his Truth Social post, highlighting how Israel's lengthy and unprecedented strike has left Iran "vulnerable." They know it. Everyone else knows it too. And in about five weeks, the entire tenor of U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic will change dramatically.
Israel has vowed never to let Iran acquire nuclear weapons. If Iran makes a last dash for the nuclear finish line we could be looking at more dramatic events in the Middle East in the near future.
Originally published at WND News Center
