Is There A Space War Coming, And Are We Ready For It?

President Donald Trump was in the news recently, having made comments about the need to establish a U.S. 'Space Force', to safeguard American interests and bolster security in space. Most news outlets and social media users were quick to ridicule this statement as some sort of sci-fi fantasy. 

However, such policy proposals are neither new nor ridiculous. In fact, this is a matter taken very seriously by professionals at the Pentagon, as well as private think-tanks which advise the Government on National Security.

According to the Outer Space Treaty, signed in 1967, space can only be used for peaceful purposes, and it doesn't fall under the jurisdiction of any country. It was ratified by most of the world's countries, including the United States. 

However, it looks like all that is about to change, as the actions of certain states, such as China and Russia, mean American interests in Earth’s orbit are now at risk.  

There are currently over two thousand man-made satellites orbiting the Earth, providing various services for people worldwide. Most of these are either commercial or military in nature, and the vast majority of all the satellites in orbit belong to either the United States, China, or Russia.

So why are National Security officials worried about space all of a sudden? This actually isn't a new concern, and it was addressed as far back as 2001 by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who said that an attack on the U.S. space infrastructure was "not improbable".

With the escalation of the war of words between the United States and Russia, as well as the economic rivalry between the U.S. and China, the idea of a war in space has become a real concern. 

However, this war would look nothing like a sci-fi movie. There would be no spaceship battles, no laser artillery, and no Death Stars. In fact, a war in space would be fought exclusively using terrestrial (or dare we say, mundane) means.

The U.S. and its adversaries are already engaged in a limited conflict using computer technology. Security experts call this 'cyber warfare.' Everyone who has read the news has heard about the endeavors of Russian hackers to conduct technologically sophisticated attacks against computer infrastructure in several countries around the globe, including the U.S.

The bulk of these Russian attacks are directed against small European states which have no chance of fighting back. Estonia for instance, which conducts its elections online, has had trouble with attacks by Russian hackers seeking to disrupt its elections. European countries have also suffered attacks on their power grid, including nuclear power plants.

Having thus perfected their cyber-prowess, adversaries of the U.S. would likely target the U.S. military's GPS satellites, seeking to cause the most damage to America's earth-bound operations. 

GPS is not used just for finding your location; it also serves a much more important purpose, especially in the financial system. It synchronizes the clocks of nearly all public terminals and devices. This is important because, if that were not the case, you could, for example, take money out of two ATMs at the same time. 

This sort of disruption would look similar to the damage people thought Y2K would cause, but on a much larger scale. It could lead to the collapse of the entire electronic infrastructure of the U.S. and its allies. This would, in turn, facilitate the use of conventional weapons by the adversaries of the U.S.

A physical attack on U.S. space architecture is also possible. China has conducted experiments using lasers to blow up their own satellites. Who is to say they won't try to use those lasers on American satellites in the future? 

The importance of protecting our orbital infrastructure is even more obvious when we consider how vulnerable satellites are. They have no defenses onboard, and their movements can easily be calculated months in advance. 

Even the smallest piece of shrapnel in orbit can cause catastrophic damage to a satellite, so enemies wouldn't even need to use lasers. 

Security experts call this sort of conflict 'hybrid warfare', and it is already being practiced by Russia, and to an extent, by China. The fact that it has not yet reached space doesn't mean it won't. It would be irresponsible for our policymakers simply to ignore such a threat and take no proactive steps to protect American interests in orbit.

Any U.S. response to an attack in space would likely be asymmetrical. That means that retaliatory measures would be taken back on Earth. This could take the form of political retaliation, such as sanctions, or cyberspace retaliation, where the U.S. would target military facilities.

All in all, we shouldn't interpret the President's call for a 'Space Force' to mean people in space suits shooting at one another with laser pistols. We should see the potential for space warfare as a serious National Security issue, and take responsible steps to address it, as this Administration has started to do.