Americans Are Continuing To Flee Blue States For Red States

Newly released census data has revealed that the trend of a mass exodus from states controlled by Democrats to states run by Republicans is continuing. Census Bureau population estimates indicate that the five fastest-growing states are red, while four of the five states that are facing a shrinking population are blue.

As noted by the National Review editorial board Monday, the data show that since 2020, the U.S. has added about 10.3 million people, only 1.9 million of which were natural births over deaths. The remaining 8.3 million constituted immigrants. "The notion of a future in which we add four new immigrants for every net increase of one homegrown American is alarming," the editors observed.

The census estimates further demonstrated that states run by Democrats (with one exception) continue to lose residents. The only five states that suffered losses in population were Vermont, Hawaii, West Virginia, New Mexico, and California, with New York narrowly breaking even. Many of these former blue state inhabitants seem to be fleeing to red states. The five fastest-growing states have Republican-controlled governments -- South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina, Texas, and Utah.

This latest data indicates that the population trends that began in 2020 are only continuing. An Institute for Family Studies (IFS) report from September 2024 found that in 2021-2022, the five states that lost the most families were the Democratic strongholds of California, New York, Illinois, Washington, and Oregon. Meanwhile, the states that gained the largest number of families were the Republican bastions of Texas, Florida, and South Carolina, along with the purple states of Georgia and Arizona.

Compounding the population problem for blue states is further data showing that fertility rates in Republican-run states are higher than they are in Democrat-run states. An October 2024 report from IFS analyzing 2023 data found that the 10 states with the highest fertility rates were all red, with the top three being South Dakota, Nebraska, and North Dakota. True to form, the 10 states with the lowest fertility rates were blue, with Vermont, Rhode Island, and Oregon being the three states with the lowest rates. The trend dovetails with studies showing that conservatives marry at higher rates and have more children than liberals.

A recent tax proposal for billionaires in California has left many scrambling the exits. The levy is emblematic of the heavy tax burden that Democrat-led states put on their citizens, with blue states securing the top 10 highest income tax rates in the nation. In addition, red states generally have fewer restrictions on home construction, have more business-friendly policies, have more jobs, and have lower energy costs, among other factors that make the cost of living less.

Experts like FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter say that the migration from blue states to red states will also likely have a big impact on future elections.

"If these projections hold up, the apportionment following the 2030 census will undoubtedly tilt future elections toward the GOP," he told The Washington Stand. "With red states looking to pick up additional seats in Congress and additional electoral college votes, the Republican path to winning the presidency and Congressional majorities will depend less on winning swing states and swing districts in blue or purple states and will be achievable staying within red states alone."

"It's bad form in politics to assume outcomes, and red states will likely have to deal with an influx of more moderate and even liberal voters fleeing blue states," Carpenter acknowledged. "But it's even worse form to drive your population out of your state with insanely unpopular agendas."

Originally published at The Washington Stand