Lessons From Oslo - Why Trumps Peace Plan Will Repeat History

U.S. President Donald Trump's new 20-point Mideast peace plan, based in large part on his "Peace to Prosperity" plan issued during his first administration, lays out conditions that on the surface seem like common sense. Palestinians must stop incitement. They must stop raising their children to hate Jews. They must form a vetted police force to maintain order, accept international supervision, rebuild their society and create a moderate self-governing authority.

These sound like reasonable benchmarks. But the problem is simple: Every single one of these measures has already been tried. They were called the Oslo Accords. And they failed miserably.

Oslo was supposed to be the framework for peace between Palestinians and Jews, built on reciprocity and mutual trust. Israel handed over land and authority in exchange for Palestinian commitments to renounce violence, end incitement and create the foundations of responsible self-government.

Through it all, Israel kept its side of the deal. It withdrew from territory, dismantled checkpoints, and allowed weapons for Palestinian Authority security forces and police.

And the Palestinians violated every one of their obligations.

They did not stop incitement. Instead, the P.A. used its schools, television, mosques and official speeches to double down on a culture of hatred. Children learned songs about killing Jews. Maps erased Israel. Martyrdom was glorified.

Far from being a stabilizing institution, the Palestinian police force became a terrorist army in uniform. During the Second Intifada in Israel during the years 2000 to 2005, members of this very force turned their guns on Israeli civilians. The international supervisors, for their part, were either powerless or complicit. Rather than insist on Palestinian compliance, they excused terror, condemned Israel's self-defense and effectively enabled further violence.

And the Palestinian government itself was a corrupt, authoritarian regime that supported terrorism outright. From PLO chief Yasser Arafat to P.A. head Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leadership has consistently rejected the very idea of Israel's right to exist.

The result was nearly 1,100 Israeli deaths from increased Palestinian terrorism. Israel endured bus bombings, suicide bombings in restaurants, stabbing attacks, car-rammings. And when Israelis pointed out that the Palestinians were violating 100% of their obligations, the response from the "peace process" industry was always the same: Stop complaining. Give the Palestinians more time to learn how to govern. Make more "sacrifices for peace."

In practice, this meant additional unilateral Israeli concessions while Palestinian society grew more radicalized.

Now comes Trump's plan, which, despite the new branding, demands that Israel once again believe in the fairy tale of Palestinian moderation. But why should it? What evidence exists, after nearly 30 years since Oslo, that Palestinian society is ready to abandon its culture of death?

The opposite is true: Surveys consistently show overwhelming support for terrorism, rejection of Israel's legitimacy and admiration for the Hamas-led atrocities in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. And not just Hamas-- thousands of Palestinian Arabs from Gaza joined in the massacre that day.

The hard truth is this: The problem is not Hamas alone, or the P.A., or even bad leadership. The problem is a culture steeped in antisemitism and rejectionism, reinforced by religious dogma that any land once under Muslim control must remain so forever.

Oslo proves that conditional peace frameworks that depend on Palestinian goodwill and compliance are illusions. Trump's plan is Oslo 2.0, dressed up in sharper suits and PowerPoint slides. To believe that it will succeed requires an act of willful blindness.

Israel cannot afford to keep playing Charlie Brown to the world's Lucy. The football isn't there. It never was.

Originally published at JNS.org