Israel's Final Push - The Ramifications Of Anything Less Than Total Victory

As Israel began the final high-intensity phase of its war against Hamas in Gaza, leading experts from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) said in a webinar on Sunday that a decisive military victory is a strategic imperative with profound regional and global implications. 

Professor Efraim Inbar, who served as JISS president from 2017 to 2025, stated that despite the IDF's significant achievements, Israel cannot yet claim victory. He noted that while Hamas is no longer an immediate military threat and has lost 70-75% of the territory it once controlled, it still holds Gaza City and can claim to have survived nearly two years of war against the Middle East's strongest military. 

"Hamas can still claim victory," Inbar said. "The 'resistance' survived for almost two years. It's obvious that Hamas wins the propaganda war." He argued that this is not a conflict that can be won on points. "This war is not a boxing match where you can win by points. Here, you need a knockout," he asserted.

He added, "From a historic perspective, the losing side in a war leaves the battlefield. Hamas should leave Gaza. This is what should be the military goal, and it's a political goal. The victory picture is ships taking Hamas terrorists to another destination, be it Turkey, Algeria, Qatar; we really don't care. This is a picture that is very similar to what happened to the PLO in 1982 in Lebanon." 

According to Inbar, "In war, there are two equations. One who can inflict more pain, and obviously we can do that.  But there is another equation who can take more pain. Hamas and Hezbollah propagate an image of a weak Israel. We remember ... It's a spiderweb image, a metaphor." According to Inbar, the deep political rifts in Israel and the national discussion focused on the hostage crisis "seem to confirm this image. We have to dispel those beliefs. And only a clear victory in Gaza can be useful in this task."

Anything less than an unequivocal outcome, Inbar warned, will be perceived as an Israeli defeat. Inbar stressed the urgency of a swift, frontal assault, arguing that Israel is "running out of time" due to the international "political clock."

A victory is needed, he said, to change the Palestinian mindset, to strengthen Arab countries that have ties with Israel, and who see Hamas's parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, as a grave threat and to send a message to the world that Israel is a bastion of Western civilization that would not be defeated by "modern barbarians."  

Professor Col. (res.) Gabi Siboni, a senior fellow at JISS and a senior consultant to the IDF and other Israeli security organizations, outlined the military blueprint for achieving this knockout victory. He advocated for imposing a complete and effective siege on Gaza City before launching an aggressive, multi-directional ground maneuver.

"We must impose a siege on the city of Gaza," Siboni stated, noting that Israel has so far been reluctant to take all necessary steps, which he called a "ridiculous" interpretation of international law. 

"We do not want to starve the population; the population will be provided with full humanitarian support south of the Netzarim corridor," he clarified. Once the city is isolated, the IDF must conduct a "very aggressive maneuver" to achieve the ultimate goal: the "unconditional surrender of Hamas." 

Siboni drew a direct parallel to the Allied strategy against Nazi Germany. "You have to understand that this war is comparable to the Second World War of Britain and the Allies... this is our Second World War," he said. He acknowledged the risk this would pose to the 48 remaining hostages but argued that it is a necessary risk. "There is no way to conduct this war and find a way to put our hostages in a bubble of cotton in Gaza. There is no way. We have to conduct our operation and achieve our goals," he said, adding that historically, Israel has always accepted risks in its most daring hostage rescue operations, such as the July 1976 Entebbe raid.

Professor Hillel Frisch, an Arab world expert and Professor Emeritus at Bar Ilan University, framed the necessity of the operation by asking, "What will Gaza look like if we don't go after Hamas?" He presented a stark, data-driven comparison between the outcomes of two different Israeli strategies: the aggressive, offensive-security model used in Judea and Samaria since 2002, versus the failed withdrawal-and-containment model used in Gaza since 2005. "1,700 Israelis have so far been killed in Gaza versus 500 in Judea and Samaria since 2005... 20,000 missiles versus none," Frisch stated. 

The Gaza strategy led to the closure of Israel's international airport, massive economic costs, and international delegitimization, none of which occurred as a result of Israel maintaining security control over Judea and Samaria, which has a larger Palestinian population, Frisch noted. 

 He dismissed the idea of installing the Palestinian Authority in Gaza as "sheer delusion," citing the PA's repeated failures to deal with Hamas even in the much smaller city of Jenin. He also noted that the moderate Arab states have explicitly stated they will not contribute their own forces to police a post-war Gaza, with the Arab League declaring that security is an "exclusive Palestinian responsibility." 

Therefore, Frisch concluded, the only viable, albeit costly, "day after" scenario is the establishment of an Israeli military government for a transitional period. "It will be far cheaper than the price Israel has paid giving up its military presence in Gaza, and certainly the price it will pay if it doesn't achieve the victory," he asserted.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, JISS director and former head of the Analysis and Production Division of the IDF Directorate of Military Intelligence (2001 to 2006), stated,  "We need a victory. And we need to, on the one hand, weaken, up to the point of defeating the evil axis led by Iran. On that we have made very considerable progress. Although there are many challenges still ahead of us. And we need to make sure that everybody understands that the Oct. 7 attack on Israel was a huge mistake."

He added, "Everybody realizes that repeating this mistake is a no-go. And the way to convince everybody that this is the case is only by defeating Hamas. We have to do it while doing everything in order to release the hostages and make sure that they are not hit. We might not be successful, but we have to make an utmost effort to make it happen."

Doing this in strategic cooperation with the United States is critical, he argued. "We have Secretary (Marco) Rubio here, and we have to make sure that we understand what concerns the United States is to make sure that we don't lose our friends in Washington. We have to make sure that we keep the kind of special relationships we have with some Arab states," he added, naming Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. 

"We have to make sure that we keep a certain level of understanding also from the rest of the West. That is very upset with us. Some of them are very upset with us, to the point that they take all kinds of really annoying steps," he said, including the recognition of a Palestinian state.

Kuperwasser described as " totally detached from reality" the idea that the PA is going to rule over Gaza. 

Defeating Hamas militarily could involve convincing it, "Inside Gaza especially, but also outside of Gaza, that the alternative for defeat for them is going to be a military takeover by Israel. That would, uh, bring about the killing of each and every one of them. And removing Hamas from power by force. So there's still a chance [for a deal], and that's what the Israeli government was trying to do for the last two years."

He concluded, "There's still a chance that at the last moment. Hamas will say, okay, we understand that there's no other option. So let us at least save our souls and go to Algeria. The chances that this is going to happen are very slim. It's not that they are big. But there's still a little chance that this is going to happen. We are trying our best in order to make it happen and give Hamas an opportunity to choose this option."

Originally published at JNS.org