The Summer Of Empty Shelves Is Coming No Matter What Trade Deals Are Made
By Michael Snyder/Economic Collapse Blog May 09, 2025
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Thousands of products that are made in China will soon start disappearing from store shelves in the United States. If a trade deal is not made with China very soon, the summer of 2025 will be "the summer of empty shelves". According to the Trump administration, "U.S. goods imports from China in 2024 totaled $438.9 billion".
We cannot possibly replace 438.9 billion dollars worth of goods that are normally sent to us by the Chinese. In fact, there are thousands of products that Americans regularly buy that are currently only made in China. We have foolishly become extremely dependent on the Chinese, and now most of the things that China makes will no longer be coming here.
The good news is that major retailers such as Walmart, Target and Home Depot still have Chinese-products to sell us because they stocked up in advance. But as they run through existing inventory levels during the next several weeks, shortages will begin to appear. In fact, Marketwatch is warning that "you can see the shelves starting to empty"...
It takes 30 to 50 days for container ships from Asia to reach the U.S.'s West Coast ports. Barring new, faster shipping options or a stunning retreat by U.S. President Donald Trump on China tariffs, the consumer retail economy, which constitutes 70% of GDP, will be damaged. Demand for container space from China on the ships transiting the Pacific Ocean currently is running 60% to 65% below what it normally would be at this time.
Attention, U.S. shoppers: If you see something you need or even think you will, head to Walmart or Target or a local retailer and buy it. Already you can see the shelves starting to empty.
If you are seeing any empty shelves now, you need to understand that this is just the beginning.
Conditions will steadily get worse until a trade deal with China is reached.
Small businesses and online retailers like Amazon will start running out of Chinese-made products first.
But it is only a matter of time before Walmart, Target, Home Depot and other big box retailers also find that they are running out of Chinese-made goods to sell.
CBS News is warning us that disruptions to our supply chains "could empty store shelves as early as this summer"...
Shipments of Chinese goods to the U.S. are plunging, auguring potential supply-chain disruptions that could empty store shelves as early as this summer, some experts have warned.
As U.S. tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports take hold, supplies of a broad range of products could start to dwindle later this summer as back-to-school and holiday spending heat up. Experts warn that the sharp decline in trade activity could lead to COVID-19 pandemic-like shortages of products, including goods assembled in the U.S. or elsewhere that use materials or inputs from China.
Some experts are pointing to the 4th of July holiday weekend as a major tipping point.
In fact, the executive director of the Port of Long Beach says that if you intend to purchase something that will be hit with a high tariff you should "buy it before July 2nd"...
Mario Cordero, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, told Newsweek a wave of canceled orders and growing uncertainty over the on-again, off-again tariffs is already constricting a key trade artery--and if nothing changes before July 2, when a 90-day suspension on steep new tariffs targeting Chinese imports expires, consumers could soon feel the impact on store shelves and in their wallets.
"If you're planning to buy something that could face a high tariff--like electronics--buy it before July 2nd," Cordero told Newsweek. "We're in a moment of radical uncertainty."
I want to emphasize that there will not be shortages of everything.
It is specifically products that are manufactured in China that will be in short supply.
So this summer you may see a couple of empty shelves located directly next to a couple of shelves that are completely full.
But without a doubt, what we are facing is going to be painful.
Just think about the various Chinese-made products that you have already purchased so far in 2025.
What will you do when those products are no longer available?
During a recent interview with CNN, Seattle port commissioner Ryan Calkins noted that there was not a single container ship currently docked at his port...
Another shipping port official voiced concern about the drastic decline in imports as a result of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
"I can see it right over my shoulder here, I'm looking out at the Port of Seattle right now, and we currently have no container ships at berth," Seattle port commissioner Ryan Calkins told CNN on Wednesday.
I was quite alarmed when I read that.
Of course the same thing will soon be happening at other U.S. ports.
Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, has told Newsweek that it is just a matter of time before east coast ports experience a similar slowdown...
"Tariff-related shipping slowdowns will cause a regional cascade effect in the U.S., a little like when COVID-19 first hit. It will first be visible in West Coast ports, which have the fastest shipping times from Asia. After that it will spread to Gulf ports like Houston, which take a little longer to reach, then East Coast ports from the Carolinas up to New England."
We are about to see exactly how deeply dependent we have become on China, and it is going to shock a lot of people.
Do you remember the shortages that we went through during the early stages of the pandemic?
Well, if there is no trade deal with China what we will eventually experience will be far worse.
According to Rolling Stone, even some members of the Trump administration have been stocking up in anticipation of what is coming...
Two Trump administration officials and a Trump aide tell Rolling Stone that they have done some stockpiling of their own in recent weeks or months, and that they know others working in Republican politics -- inside and outside of the administration -- who are doing the same. One of the Trump officials says they have already run to Target to bulk-buy toilet paper, some types of food, and other household supplies.
Apparently one Trump aide believes that it "would be stupid" not to stock up considering everything that is happening right now...
When asked why they're doing this, the Trump aide -- who says they and their partner have done similar household-supply hoarding lately, and are also "stashing cash" reserves in their D.C.-area home -- simply replies: "Because it would be stupid not to!" The aide adds that they still believe in Trump's tariffs regime, though, citing the supposed advantage of "short-term pain" in exchange for long-term "prosperity."
If there are products that are made in China that you are going to need in the months ahead, purchase them immediately.
I don't think that I can say that enough.
Over the next several weeks, those products will steadily disappear.
If something really dramatic does not happen soon, we really are facing a summer of empty shelves, and that will not be good for our economy at all.
Originally published at The Economic Collapse Blog
