The West’s Growing Epidemic Of Childlessness Will Fundamentally Alter Societies

The West's growing epidemic of childlessness and depopulation will "fundamentally alter our societies" and impose "an existential economic crisis" on the United States that will cost the U.S. alone "quadrillions of dollars," according to two new reports.

Despite decades of warnings about overpopulation, the United States and Europe have long had fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per family. The global population bust will lead to nations with lower GDP, higher welfare spending, fewer workers, less economic power -- and, possibly, a shift away from a global order led by the once-Christian West to one overwhelmed by a growing Muslim population.

"If we are unable to address our fertility crisis, the U.S. will face an existential economic crisis driven by a steep decline in fertility rates -- one that could have an impact measured in the quadrillions of dollars," wrote Jesús Fernández-Villaverde in The American Enterprise, the monthly publication of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). "[Y]es, tackling fertility has an impact measured in discounted terms of quadrillions of dollars, not just small change like a miserly trillion dollars here or there."

"Seems bad," quipped Brad Wilcox, professor of sociology at the University of Virginia and a fellow at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS).

If anything, the economic concerns minimize the full extent of the social revolution soon to be ushered in through low fertility, say experts in Europe.

The world's impending underpopulation "should be treated as a primary political issue: We will be witnessing the reshaping of our region's social, economic, and political landscape, impacting social structure, infrastructure, labour force, retirement, old age and health, state finances, and security -- almost every aspect of life. It will break the system," wrote Gudrun Kugler of Austria.

No one questions the fact that nearly every corner of the globe is producing fewer babies. Global fertility has plunged from five children per woman in 1950 to around 2.25 children per woman in 2023, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)'s "World Population Prospects" report. "Globally, the total fertility rate is likely already below replacement -- that is, below the level needed to sustain the population in the long run, approximately 2.18 children per woman. In the U.S., it's around 1.6," wrote Fernández-Villaverde.

The birthrate in every society on nearly every continent is below replacement level, except sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, noted Kugler -- who is vice president of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA).

Of OSCE region's 56 member nations, only the primarily Muslim nations of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan currently have replacement-level birthrates. Roman Catholic Malta had the lowest birthrate at 1.08. "Even in India birth rates have fallen below replacement levels: Only five out of thirty-six states are now above replacement level," noted the OSCE report. After decades of a brutally enforced one-child policy, "China could lose as many as 600 million inhabitants by the end of the century," added Fernández-Villaverde.

"This trend is evident in both wealthy and poor nations, in religious and secular states, in countries with right-wing governments, as well as those with left-wing governments, and in nations with free abortion access and those with restrictive abortion laws," wrote Fernández-Villaverde.

However, abortion impacts the global fertility replacement level in one way: "[T]he global replacement rate of 2.18 is slightly higher than that of the U.S. due to selective abortion of girls in Asia and higher female mortality in Africa."

To make matters worse, the full extent of the problem is hidden by a phenomenon known as "population momentum": Women in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts continue to have babies while their parents are alive, coasting on previous fertility rates. "All of today's global population growth is solely a result of this momentum," stated the AEI report.

The largest driver of the West's demographic decline is unplanned childlessness. While those who become parents have roughly the same amount of children as usual, the rates of those who never have children has increased as much as 10-fold in Italy. Most were not childless by choice: Only 32% of childless Europeans did not want children, compared with 38% who desired children but never had them, noted Kugler in her report, "Demographic Change in the OSCE Region: Analysis, Impact and Possible Solutions of a Mega Trend Reshaping Society."

These changes will have a profound impact on the entire world.

With fewer children, the U.S. economic engine will soon run out of fuel. It's simple math: "Since the Civil War, the long-term average growth rate of output per worker in the U.S. has been approximately 1.9% annually," according to Fernández-Villaverde. Economic growth is the output per worker plus the size of the labor pool. With fewer children, American GDP will grow at a slower rate, and "in downturns, the economy will contract, not just grow more slowly."

The population advantage can be measured by comparing the U.S. to one of the nations at the forefront of demographic decline: Japan. From 1991 to 2019, the U.S. averaged 2.53% average economic growth, while the Japanese economy grew by only 0.83%. For all but seven of those years, the Japanese worker's productivity exceeded that of his American counterpart. The difference? The U.S. labor force increased by 0.91% annually, while the Japanese population contracted by 0.54% a year.

"Once we begin to contemplate the fiscal implications of a declining population, it becomes difficult to focus on anything else," concluded Fernández-Villaverde.

The consequences of the West's birthrate falling below replacement level will be profound, according to the studies. Fewer workers will create labor shortages, leading to lower innovation, a sluggish economy, and rising dependency. A less productive society will decimate the tax base, lowering the amount of revenue the government collects and, in the process, straining pension systems and welfare programs.

This is particularly true of government transfer payments such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In Austria, by 2042, "there will be only two working people for every pensioner, compared to today's ratio of three to one," noted Kugler.

An aging population exponentially increases a society's health care costs. In Austria, those over the age of 60 make twice as many doctor visits as those under that age. "In Spain, in 2011, 80% of all pharmaceutical expenses were made by people aged 65 or more, who were 17% of the population then," Kugler wrote.

Fewer babies being born also transforms societies in more profound ways beyond those that can be measured on a spreadsheet. One is growing social isolation and hopelessness. In 2023, then-U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued the first-ever report on America's "epidemic of loneliness." In the U.K., 7.1% of the population -- or 3.83 million Britons -- report experiencing "chronic loneliness." Smaller families and a shrinking social circle, worsened by decreasing church attendance, breed depression.

Depopulation hits rural areas the hardest. A smaller national population increases urbanization, even as most Americans say they would rather live in a small town or rural area. Those in rural areas may see vital resources such as hospitals and grocery stores close.

A smaller population also has the potential to alter the global balance of power. Fewer people also impact the government's ability to pay the national debt and maintain an adequate armed force deterrent. Overall noted Kugler, a smaller population in the West "could lead to a shift in geopolitical dynamics, as Europe's demographic decline may reduce its strategic importance in global affairs."

The U.S. population has only grown due to immigration, which brings its own challenges to social cohesion. Yet increasing immigration levels cannot even solve the economic problems posed by a shrinking populace, because, wrote Fernández-Villaverde, most legal immigrants are a net economic drain. "Only at the top 10th percentiles are immigrants net contributors" to the economy. "In other words, all immigrants that come to the US are below the 90th percentile and won't help solve the fiscal woes created by low fertility."

Furthermore, the children of immigrants pose similar issues. "European countries that have the detailed databases required to compute these numbers carefully have found that not even the second-generation (i.e., the sons of immigrants born in the country) is a net contributor to the welfare state," he noted.

All told, wrote Kugler, the West's way of life cannot continue "without major adjustments."

Originally published at The Washington Stand