Israel Ceasefire's Future Looks Dim - Hamas Already Rebuilding

Before Hamas released four female IDF soldiers on Saturday as part of the ongoing prisoner swap, they forced them to participate in a humiliating display. "They put the girls in fake uniforms, and they paraded them up on stage in front of a crowd of men carrying automatic weapons and whooping," related Jewish News Syndicate Senior Contributing Editor Caroline Glick on "Washington Watch" Monday. "They were told that they had to smile and put their hands up and stuff like that."

In exchange for the four women "captured in their pajamas," added Glick, Israel freed 200 "mass murderers -- I mean, some of the worst murderers" -- who "were received in triumph in villages all around in Judea and Samaria and in Gaza." At least 121 of the Palestinian prisoners released were serving life sentences for deadly terrorist attacks. "It's all theater," Glick complained. "It's to demoralize Israelis. And it's to make people who support Hamas and support October 7th feel triumphant."

This disturbing incident provides yet another reminder that the current ceasefire is unlikely to mature into a lasting peace, for the simple reason that Hamas does not want peace. The radical terrorist group is publicly committed to Israel's "annihilation," and despite their stunning losses the recent ceasefire encouraged them to believe they are, in fact, winning.

In fact, "during this six-week cease fire, there seems to be evidence ... that Hamas is regrouping, reorganizing, and rearming," observed Family Research Council President Tony Perkins.

"It's the nature of the beast. I mean, Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization," Glick responded. "We've killed a lot of their terrorists, but they're hiring new recruits -- because also, this fake humanitarian aid that they're demanding -- 600 trucks of goods coming in -- it's all under [their] control, and so they can sell it all ... so that they have the money to hire new recruits. And they're really the only hiring game in town since Gaza is just a smoldering pile of rubble."

That said, waves of green recruits are "not the same as having the sort of veteran, well-trained people who came in and invaded Israel on October 7th," Glick added. Hamas is "not the same military organization" in terms of capabilities. In any event, "the people of Gaza have proven themselves beyond a shred of a doubt, that they have no interest in peaceful coexistence with Israel."

Israel expert Eric Stakelbeck agreed on "Washington Watch" on Friday, describing Hamas as "a ragtag guerrilla fighting force" at present. "They can still cause damage, but their rocket arsenal has been completely depleted. They themselves have no possibility of carrying out an October 7th-style attack. ... Israel has killed close to 20,000 Hamas terrorists since October 7th ... hardened, seasoned, battle-tested, battle-trained Hamas operatives. So, it's a big step down in quality, the quality of Hamas fighters as well."

Undaunted by their inexperience, the new generation of Hamas is eager to perpetuate the group's genocidal legacy, so they have not troubled themselves to stick closely to the terms of the ceasefire. "They've been breaching the ceasefire deal from the outset," Glick argued. "From being late in giving us the names of the women who they released in the first tranche to not releasing the hostages that they were committed to releasing last Saturday to having these kinds of pageants when they release the soldiers ... just an innumerable number of breaches, they're breaching it on every turn."

Additionally, Israel learned over the weekend that a quarter -- eight out of 33 -- of the hostages Hamas agreed to release during the first phase of the ceasefire are dead.

To hear Glick explain it, Israel already has sufficient grounds to break off the ceasefire, but "Israel prefers to get back the hostages for now," she said. "We're obviously tabulating all the breaches, and we're waiting. Because the whole point of this deal is to get as many live hostages back as possible. It's not to make peace with Hamas."

Israel doesn't want to make peace with Hamas because it knows that is impossible. As much as the Biden administration proved deaf to Hamas's declared intentions, Israelis got the message.

Even agreeing to a ceasefire that would allow Hamas to rearm and rebuild was a tough sell in Israel domestically, one which had no upside at all if not for the return of hostages, whose ongoing captivity has become "a national nightmare," said Glick. From the beginning, Israel has had "two war goals," described Perkins. "One is to get the hostages back ... and the second is to eliminate Hamas as a threat."

"It's a no-win situation" for Israel, Stakelbeck reflected. "Israel is getting 33 people back, which is great. We celebrate their release. ... But what a heavy price to pay."

The calculation is that Israel will be able to recapture territory from Hamas more easily the second time around. "Hamas has largely been smashed in Gaza over the past 15 months," Stakelbeck said, "still a danger, but nowhere near where they were. And Israel also has excellent intelligence in Gaza now. So, as soon as these terrorists are released, they will be tracked and monitored. And Israel also has a buffer zone between Gaza and southern Israel."

"I think that the prime minister made a calculated risk ... that we're going to be able to accomplish the goal of annihilating Hamas," suggested Glick.

Indeed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to risk not only Israel's progress in the war but his own political career. His governing majority in the Israel Knesset relied on the support of two smaller, right-wing parties, which take a hardline position on negotiations with Hamas. When Netanyahu approved the ceasefire deal, the leader of the Jewish Power party, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned as national security minister and withdrew his party from Netanyahu's coalition.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist party, also opposed the deal and nearly resigned as well, which would have cost Netanyahu his governing majority and forced new elections. As it happened, Smotrich threatened to resign if Israel does not resume operations after the six weeks are up. "I demanded -- and received -- a commitment from Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel will return to the battlefield to eliminate Hamas and eradicate this threat once and for all," Smotrich said Monday.

"You would think, judging by their track record, that Hamas eventually will break this deal somehow and violate the deal," Stakelbeck surmised. "Then, Israel is fully prepared to ... use the full brunt, the full might of the Israel Defense Forces to crush Hamas once and for all."

Trump seems to share Stakelbeck's dim outlook on the ceasefire. In an overlooked exchange from last Monday, Trump answered a reporter's question by saying that he is "not confident" the ceasefire will last. "Trump has been very clear with Israel that, 'Look, if Hamas tries to reconstitute, tries to take power in a major way in Gaza ... you have free rein, Israel. Do what you need to do,'" said Stakelbeck.

Over the weekend, Trump was once again thinking outside the box to which the Israeli-Palestinian issue is usually confined by demanding that Jordan and Egypt do more to accept Palestinian refugees. "Egypt is in breach of a binding humanitarian law of war that requires people to provide refuge to civilians in armed conflicts," Glick explained. "And Egypt has kept their border closed and banned Gazans from coming in from seeking refuge in Egypt or in any third country through Egypt. ... The same could be said, of course, of Jordanian King Abdullah."

Such atypical thinking led in his first administration to the Abraham Accords, the greatest breakthrough in Middle East peace in 50 years. It could once again find new breakthroughs that promote the peace and safety of both Israel and the world.

Stakelbeck said Trump gets a 10-out-of-10 score from him for the president's backing of Israel. This estimate is "based on President Trump's first term and based on the team he has around him right now: people like Mike Huckabee as incoming ambassador, Michael Waltz as national security advisor, and Marco Rubio as secretary of state."

Friends of Israel were disappointed that the disadvantageous ceasefire did not allow Israel to finish the job. But there is a new administration in Washington who is not intent on suffocating Israel with the profuse kisses of an enemy (Proverbs 27:6).

Netanyahu announced last week that Trump "gave full backing to Israel's right to return to fighting, if Israel comes to the conclusion that negotiations on Phase B of the ceasefire are futile."

Originally published at The Washington Stand