Misjudging the Bear: Is the West Underestimating Russia's Nuclear Threat?
By Michael Snyder/Economic Collapse Blog November 20, 2024
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When it comes to the world of geopolitics, there is always far more going on than meets the eye. The long-range missiles that Ukraine is now firing deep into Russian territory are not going to change the course of the war. But the Russian response to those long-range missiles might. Hopefully the Russians will show restraint, because they may not even realize that they are being led into a trap.
Just two days after Joe Biden gave the green light, Ukraine fired six ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory on Tuesday...
Ukraine hit a Russian weapons arsenal with US-made ATACMS missiles that it fired across the border for the first time, according to two US officials, in a major escalation on the 1,000th day of war.
The attack comes just two days after the Biden administration gave Kyiv the green light to use the longer-range American weapons against targets inside Russia.
The Russians possess the most sophisticated anti-missile systems on the entire planet by a wide margin, and they were able to shoot down five of the missiles and damage the sixth before it reached the target...
At 3:25 a.m. local time (7:25 p.m. ET) Tuesday, Ukraine fired six ballistic missiles at a facility in Bryansk, Russia's Defense Ministry said. It said that American-made ATACMS missiles had been used in the attack.
Russian air defenses said they shot down five of the missiles and another was damaged. Fragments from the damaged missile fell on the territory of a military facility, causing a fire that has since been extinguished. There were no casualties or damage.
Since there were no casualties and no damage, the Russians will hopefully not feel a need to respond to this particular strike.
But what is going to happen next time?
And how will they respond when Russian cities start getting targeted?
Following the attack, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed out that the Ukrainians cannot operate these high-tech missile systems without U.S. assistance...
Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, responded to the attack, accusing the West of wanting to escalate the conflict.
"The fact that ATACMS were used repeatedly tonight in the Bryansk region is, of course, a signal that they in the West want escalation. And without the Americans, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles," Lavrov said at a news conference at the G20 summit, according to comments reported by Tass and translated by Google.
To the Russians, when ATACMS missiles are fired into their territory it is a joint attack by Ukraine and the United States.
And we are being warned that the Russians could use nuclear weapons in response.
On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin signed a document which updates Russia's official nuclear doctrine...
The Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against allowing Ukraine to use its long-range weapons to attack Russia directly. Moscow upped the ante Tuesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving its updated nuclear doctrine, shifting the parameters on when Russia can use nuclear weapons.
The timing of this signing was meant to be a signal.
According to this document, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if there is a missile attack "by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state"...
"You will be able to read the paragraphs yourself, but in general it also states that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression with the use of conventional weapons against it or the Republic of Belarus, which creates a critical threat to sovereignty or territorial integrity," Peskov told reporters.
"Aggression against the Russian Federation by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered a joint attack."
That is clearly directed at us.
The Russians are trying to warn us that we are dangerously close to starting a nuclear war.
One Russian military official is even suggesting that the UK could be the first target...
Andrey Gurulev, reservist Russian army general, MP and pro-Putin TV propagandist, warned of a full-scale nuclear strike on Britain.
"There are individual targets that can be hit with....demonstrative warning strikes," he said.
"The first candidate to get a nuclear bludgeon....is the UK."
I disagree.
If the Russians decide to use nuclear weapons, Ukraine will likely be the first target.
If Russians cities get hit by long-range missiles, the Russians would be very tempted to respond by hitting Ukraine with a tactical nuke.
Of course the Biden administration has already strongly hinted that if the Russians use tactical nukes in Ukraine we will respond by using tactical nukes in Ukraine too.
That would mean a full-blown war between the United States and Russia, and that is precisely what the Ukrainians want, because that gives them the best chance of actually winning the conflict.
And could that be exactly what the global elite are wishing for too?
When he heard that Ukraine had been given the green light to launch long-range missiles into Russia, Alex Soros was absolutely thrilled...
The Economist has just published their outlook for 2025, and they appear to think that the war in Ukraine will be a major theme during the coming year.
If the global elite can trigger a direct war between the United States and Russia before Donald Trump takes office, it may become nearly impossible for him to stop it once he gets into the White House.
Because it isn't just the left that has a really bad case of "war fever" right now. Many prominent Republican members of Congress have a really bad case of "war fever" too. For example, just consider something that Mitch McConnell just said...
US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sharply criticized the Biden administration for delaying announcing its decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia. McConnell said the administration had what he called "unsubstantiated" fears of "escalation."
McConnell pointedly said: "History will record hesitation, indecision and cowardice as the hallmarks of this administration's Ukraine policy from the beginning."
The neocons want this war, and they are convinced that the Russians will never actually fire nuclear missiles at the United States.
In fact, just about everyone in Washington D.C. seems to think that the Russians are bluffing.
But if they are bluffing, why have they begun "serial production of mobile bomb shelters"?...
Russia has begun serial production of mobile bomb shelters that can protect against a variety of threats including shockwaves and radiation from a nuclear blast.
The emergency ministry's research institute said the "KUB-M" shelter could offer protection for 48 hours against these and other natural and man-made hazards.
I realize that a lot of people out there do not believe this, but the truth is that the Russians are quite serious about nuclear war.
As I have discussed in my books, the Russians know that there are no winners in a nuclear war. But they also understand that whoever strikes first will have the best chance of surviving a nuclear war if one becomes inevitable.
Russia has already launched an effort to refurbish and expand its network of nuclear shelters by ordering nationwide inspections and upgrades to bomb shelters, many of which have been neglected since the Soviet era. Local authorities are rushing to address deficiencies by repairing ventilation systems, installing air filters, and reinforcing structures.
Many U.S. officials assume that since we would never conduct a first strike, the Russian's wouldn't either.
That is a tragic mistake.
If we keep crossing the red lines that the Russians have established, we may eventually find out that they weren't bluffing at all.
Originally published at The Economic Collapse Blog
