Can Israel Afford To Wait For Iran To Get Nukes?

With Hezbollah in distress, some security analysts see its erosion as a vulnerability for the Iranian nuclear program, which they say is more susceptible to an Israeli attack than it's been in years.

In that reading of the situation, Israel's apparent trouncing of Hezbollah in recent weeks has diminished its capacity to deter the Jewish state from striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Other experts, however, warn that Hezbollah's muted response to Israeli attacks is in part because it's conserving its strength to safeguard Iran.

Before the thrashing, which began on Sept. 17 and included the assassination of Hezbollah's entire upper echelon including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Shi'ite group was seen as a powerful platform for a retaliation by Iran against Israel. It was seen as potentially offsetting Israel's aerial superiority and missile defense systems.

Offensive action by Iran, which on Tuesday fired scores of ballistic missiles at Israel, in the second such barrage this year--in support of its proxies may have also increased the likelihood of an Israeli attack, giving it urgency and added justification.

Several weeks ago, it was thought that a major attack on Iran would likely trigger a Hezbollah offensive so fierce that it would simultaneously tie down Israeli military forces and aerial defense systems, paralyze the economy and force millions out of their homes.

Yet two weeks into the largest escalation in hostilities with Hezbollah in 18 years, the terrorists have inflicted minor damage with limited-scale rocket fire from Lebanon that has failed to disrupt everyday life in most of Israel, let alone shut down the economy.

Iranian President Tours Nuclear FacilitiesThe inside of a uranium conversion facility just outside Isfahan, 250 miles south of Tehran, in 2005. Photo by Getty Images.

The elimination of Nasrallah and his top commanders on Sept. 26 followed a weeklong precision-strike campaign on Hezbollah that took out tons of arms.

On Sept. 30, Israeli troops began conducting cross-border incursions in Hezbollah strongholds near the border. The terrorist group has lost more than 500 fighters in lower-intensity fighting that began on Oct. 8, while killing about 50 Israelis in the space of a year.

Amid widespread speculation that Hezbollah has suffered a major blow, experts opined that this leaves Iran exposed to an attack on its nuclear facilities by Israel, where a strike has been debated for at least two decades.

"They're absolutely more vulnerable now," Or Yissachar, a national security researcher who focuses on Iran's strategic capabilities, told JNS.

Hezbollah was the "crown jewel" in a network of proxies that Iran has for decades set up around Israel to offset its technological superiority and complement Iran's own military capabilities, said Yissachar, vice president of research and content at Israel's Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) think tank. But Hezbollah has taken "a severe beating" by Israel, he added.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, in solidarity with Hamas, whose terrorists murdered some 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7 and abducted another 251. Israel began an ongoing military campaign against Hamas in Gaza that month, largely dismantling its military capabilities while containing the constant fire by Hezbollah from Lebanon.

On Sept. 17 and Sept. 18, hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah exploded, killing dozens and wounding hundreds of terrorists. It was the firing shot for a major escalation of hostilities against Hezbollah, which culminated in the targeted killing of the group's leadership in a precision strike in Beirut on Sept. 26, in which Israel dropped about 85 bunker-busting, one-ton bombs on their headquarters during a meeting.

On Tuesday, Iran launched some 180 missiles at Israel, injuring at least two people but killing none. Many of the projectiles were intercepted in the air, the Israel Defense Forces said. Israeli officials said Jerusalem intends to retaliate for the rocket fire.

Israel and its allies showed themselves capable of extremely high interception rates during the previous mass projectile attack by Iran on April 14, Yissachar noted.

That attack, carried out in retaliation for a deadly strike on terrorists at the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, ended with no significant hits and the downing of all but a handful of the 170 drones and 150 missiles by the interception systems of Israel and its allies.

The April 14 attack "may have shown that Iran was dangerous, but it also exposed its weakness," Yissachar said. He added: "Now more than ever, this is a good time for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities."

Daniel Pipes, a prominent Middle East analyst and president of the Middle East Forum think tank, told JNS regarding an Israeli attack on Iran: "The sooner the better. By all means, this is a good moment."

Iranian leaders have often threatened to destroy Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel will not allow the Islamic Republic to obtain nuclear weapons, something Israel and other Western nations believe Iran is indeed trying to do.

Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian diplomatic and security studies at Reichmann University in Herzliya, is among the analysts who advise against an Israeli strike at this moment.

Hezbollah may still be a deterrent capable of causing major harm to Israel, he argued. The terrorist group may be conserving its stockpile of tens of thousands of rockets "because this is one of the major deterrents that Iran has against the potential Israeli attack on its nuclear program," Javedanfar said.

The Iranians, Javedanfar added, "are concerned that if they use it [Hezbollah's arsenal] now, then Iran's nuclear program could be exposed in the future to an Israeli attack. I think the Iranians are waiting to use those missiles on Judgment Day when they feel that Israel wants to launch a massive attack on Iran's nuclear program and on Iran itself."

Attacking Iran's nuclear facilities now would at best "set it back a couple of years," he opined. "We could press our advantage to actually try to reach a deal because we have a very strong hand right now," said Javedanfar, who envisioned a tougher accord than the now-defunct United States-led JCPOA nuclear agreement.

Pipes noted that the extent of the damage that Israel has caused to Hezbollah is unknown, making it hard to assess the terrorist group's ability to hurt the Jewish state.

Nevertheless, Pipes supports an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear program. "The ideal moment was in late 2008 or early 2009," he said.

The price that Israel is willing to pay for striking Iran, Pipes added, should be measured against the fact that "should the Islamic Republic of Iran get access to nuclear weapons, it will change a great deal both in the Middle East and the world."

Originally published at JNS.org