World Waits For Hezbollah Response To Israel's James Bond-Style Attacks

The events this week in Lebanon sound like they were taken out of a James Bond movie, as sabotaged pagers used by Hezbollah exploded simultaneously across the country, killing 12 and injuring some 3,000 people, the vast majority of whom were members of the terror organization.

This was followed up with an additional attack the next day that killed 20 and injured another 450 as hand-held walkie-talkies being used as backups also exploded.  These devices were part of the terror group's emergency communications systems that were supposed to be used during a conflict with the Israel Defense Forces.

Experts believe that Israeli security apparatuses were able to access Hezbollah's supply chain, plant the explosives and wait for an opportune time to detonate the devices remotely. This represents an unprecedented breach of Hezbollah's communication system and a reminder of Israel's advanced technological capabilities, which the terror group is well aware of. 

Just a few months ago, Hassan Nasrallah, its secretary-general, warned his men not to use cell phones as he believed that Israel's ability to monitor cellular communications is the primary way it has been able to accurately target and assassinate many Hezbollah members in the past months.

It appears that Israel had access to more than just communication devices. Its decision to detonate the sabotaged pager devices was a response to Hezbollah's attempt to assassinate the former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Aviv Kochavi, foiled just days ago. Hezbollah, on its part, was quick to point to Israel as the perpetrator of the large-scale attack and vowed to retaliate. 

According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of IDF Military Intelligence's Research and Assessment Division and a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, the ball is now in Hezbollah's court.

"Based on that, we'll see how this moves forward," said Kuperwasser, who is also a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs.

Hezbollah's range of options ranges from the minor all the way up to a large-scale attack on Israel, he said, adding that Israel is prepared for all scenarios.

If a full-scale war does break out, he said, Israel will now be in an improved starting position to create a new reality in southern Lebanon.

A large-scale Hezbollah attack "could give Israel justification for an operation" in Southern Lebanon, he said. He noted however that "Israel can do this without any further justification, since Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel without stop." 

Still, he assessed, a broad Hezbollah attack in response to an incident for which Israel maintained deniability could provide clearer justification for an Israeli operation in southern Lebanon. 

Rami Igra, a former senior official with Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, told JNS that if Israel was involved in the incident, "What's important is where this leads. Is it another round in the ping-pong game between Israel and Hezbollah--and if so it is worthless--or a prelude to a more significant confrontation?"

Igra emphasized that Hezbollah's military-terrorist capacity remains largely intact. "Nothing significant has happened to Hezbollah's capability vis-a-vis the 150,000 missiles and Radwan forces on the Israeli border," he argued. Igra warned that failing to address the Hezbollah threat now could lead to greater consequences down the road. "The lesson from Oct. 7 shows that when we fail to deal with a threat today, we will pay a much higher price down the line," he said.

Israel cannot afford to allow Hezbollah to continue unchecked, he added.

"Would a war in the north be simple? It seems not, but if we do not deal with it today, we will deal with it tomorrow, and what we do not pay today, we will pay double tomorrow," he said. "I very much hope this was the beginning and not the end." 

According to Cmdr. (res.) Eyal Pinko, a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University and a former Israeli Navy officer, Tuesday's attack was highly sophisticated and likely took more than a year of planning.

Speaking during a video call organized by the Jerusalem Press Club, Pinko said the sophistication of the attack lies in the intelligence operation rather than the technology. 

"Hezbollah is the largest drug baron in South America. Most of the drugs that are coming to the US, to Canada, to Europe are coming from Colombia and Mexico by Hezbollah," Pinko explained, creating an infrastructure to purchase pagers. "If Hezbollah wants to buy these kinds of beepers or any other communication measures, they need some kind of straw company, they buy it for some kind of company, and from there it goes to Lebanon," he said. "It's a huge network, and of course, it's using the Quds Force of Iran. It's a whole supply chain."

The former naval officer also emphasized that Hezbollah's senior command structure had likely been affected by the recent events.

"Probably what is happening now in Hezbollah is that all the command structure from, let's say, the rank of lieutenant colonel in a regular military to the generals, are severely wounded; some of them are already dead," he said. This, he added, presents a potential opening for Israeli military action, though he expressed doubt that Israel would seek to escalate the situation.

Nasrallah has said for months that Hezbollah is not interested in escalating the ongoing fighting with Israel to an all-out war. He will now need to come up with a retaliation to answer a mixture of conditions regarding the nature of the target, its geographic location and the appropriate weapon to hit it with--in a way that will send Israel a fierce message without creating a deterioration in the situation.

Finding this appropriate "Goldilocks" retaliation is increasingly tricky as Hezbollah finds itself confronting an Israeli rival that is less and less willing to contain such attacks. The Israeli government faces rising domestic pressure from both the public and the military command to take a much more aggressive approach against Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel. The government's recent decision to formally include the return of civilians to their homes in the north as a war objective should also be seen as a sign of its new focus. 

Nasrallah should be closely watching Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is traditionally seen as risk-aversive. Netanyahu's recent aggressive approach towards the United States and his rejection of any potential diplomatic attempt to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon reflect his intentions to continue the military campaign despite the risk of further escalation and widening of the war.

Nonetheless, many analysts believe Israel will heed Washington's call not to escalate the conflict. Still, Nasrallah must consider that the domestic political pressures on Netanyahu, along with his tense relations with Washington, could lead him to order to widen the campaign against Hezbollah.

Furthermore, Nasrallah should consider the possibility that due to the upcoming presidential election in the United States, Israel might see the current timing as an opportunity to attack Hezbollah, believing that the Democrats need to secure the Jewish vote which will force Washington to stand by Israel.

The combination of Israel's intelligence superiority, as demonstrated in the "pagers attack", the rising domestic pressure to deal with Hezbollah "once and for all," and the possibility of a weakened American restraining factor on the Israeli decision-makers puts Nasrallah on the spot--as one step in the wrong direction could cost Hezbollah, and Lebanon as a whole, dearly.

After the 2006 war with Israel, Nasrallah later admitted that had he known the attack he had authorized on the Israeli border would lead to an all-out war, he would never have approved it. Let us hope that he remembers that lesson.

Originally published at JNS.org