Hezbollah And Iran Plot Mediterranean War Strategy Against Israel

Hezbollah, under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, is coordinating with Iran to open a new front against Israel in the Mediterranean. The objective is to neutralize the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force, which Hezbollah perceives as its greatest threat.

Nasrallah's strategy includes targeting Cyprus, which he suspects could serve as an alternative operational base for the IAF in the event of a war with Lebanon.

Nasrallah's recent warning to Cyprus aimed to discourage its cooperation with Israel, as part of a broader Hezbollah-Iranian campaign to raise international awareness about the potential consequences of an all-out war with Israel.

Nasrallah seeks to generate international pressure on Israel to prevent a significant pre-emptive attack, whether by air or ground strikes, including large-scale airstrikes like those that opened the 2006 Second Lebanon War after Hezbollah ambushed Israeli soldiers on patrol.

He emphasizes that any future conflict will differ significantly, with new rules and strategies.

Hezbollah's threats include a first strike on Israel involving a ground invasion of the Galilee, possibly via tunnels, attacks on Israeli ships in the Mediterranean, deploying swarms of drones into Israeli airspace to target military bases and strategic facilities, and attacking Israel's gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea.

One if by land, two if by sea

No Iranian warships that could threaten Israel are currently in the Mediterranean. However, conceivably, long-range cruise and ballistic missiles could be fired at targets in the Mediterranean from Lebanese or Syrian bases, just as they have been launched against Red Sea shipping from Houthi territory.

In 2006, Hezbollah fired a Chinese-made C-802 anti-ship cruise missile from the Lebanese coast that almost sank an Israeli missile boat, the INS Hanit. Today, Hezbollah's naval weapons could include Iranian ship drones and even mini-submarines.

Nasrallah's message was directed at all regional players in the Middle East and the international community supporting Israel. Some suspect that he, alongside Iran, plan to impose a significant naval blockade on Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.

Iran and Hezbollah have been preparing for this move since the beginning of the war, with the threat to Cyprus being part of Nasrallah's plans.

Without an air force, Hezbollah relies on its large fleet of UAVs, aiming to neutralize the IAF through two primary actions. The first is a surprise attack with precision missiles and UAVs on IAF bases and radar and air defense facilities, including paralyzing Ben Gurion Airport.

Nasrallah's goal would be to ground Israeli aircraft to prevent them from conducting missions in Lebanon against mid- and long-range missile launchers.

Nasrallah fears that Israel might preempt his planned attack by deploying its air force to Cypriot bases, a scenario the IAF practiced with Cyprus during military exercises over the past year.

"Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war," said Nasrallah.

Cyprus is 250 kilometers (155 miles) from Lebanon's coast.

Hezbollah officials told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that Israeli, American, British and French intelligence delegations met in Cyprus to coordinate military cooperation against Hezbollah and Iran.

In May 2023, Israel and Cyprus conducted their "Jason-Blue Sun" air exercise, with personnel from the Cypriot National Guard air force command and the Israeli military air force participating.

These meetings, Hezbollah argues, are not about European security but rather to support Israel in conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and to provide an air defense umbrella similar to what was offered on April 13 when Iran launched over 300 ballistic missiles and UAVs at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Gen. Mohamad Reza Zahedi in Damascus.

Hezbollah asserts that the British planes based in Cyprus intercepted Iranian drones and missiles during that attack.

Nasrallah views Cyprus as Europe's gateway to Lebanon, holding it directly responsible for any developments.

The United States and European countries are wary of Nasrallah's and Iran's intentions to make the Mediterranean Sea a new conflict zone.

They have already witnessed the capabilities of Iran's proxies in the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks from Yemen on ships and the ongoing blockade on Israel serve as warnings for the Mediterranean.

The Houthis claim to have hit 150 ships linked to Israel so far.

In his first speech following the outbreak of war on Oct. 7, Nasrallah warned the United States of risk to its fleet after President Joe Biden announced the deployment of two aircraft carriers to the area.

Originally published at JNS.org