I watched a chilling presentation by the Hudson Institute recently by someone who is much smarter than Joe Biden or anyone in his administration.
His name is Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Center Advisory Board. He's a very serious man - and I suspect a very rich man.
His topic: "China Prepares for War: A Timeline - Xi's Inexorable March Toward War."
He started with three slides, which incorporated three observations of Chinese President Xi Jinping:
- He's fond of discussing, and he's not shy about it, "The rejuvenation of the great Chinese race," which he likens it to his life's singular goal.
- In October 2022, he mentioned his "laser-like focus on reacquiring the Taiwanese separatists." He says that if he cannot achieve it, his entire set of lifetime achievements would amount to failure.
- In his last six major speeches, Xi has stressed the need to prepare for war and for the 90 million members of the Communist Party of China to get ready for the "Great Struggle."
OK, now that you know what he wants more than anything else, here's where Xi stands on the way to achieving his goal.
As part of his aggression toward Taiwan, he completed Operation Joint Fire-Strike in August 2022. He completed Operation Joint Sword this year. And he has not named the last operation - an amphibious assault on a to-be-announced basis. Don't expect his next move to be telegraphed as Vladimir Putin's all-out-invasion was.
Notably, Xi says, Operation Joint Sword stressed speed and agility but not control of data. Prior to Joint Sword, the Chinese severed the undersea fiber-optic cables between Taiwan and Matsu Island. They understand the need for data flows between Taiwan and the rest of the world must be maintained scrupulously.
Li Yi, a professor at Being's Communist Party School, gave a speech in April 2022 where he said: "We need to reunify with Taiwan province as soon as possible with our overwhelming troops and firepower. Simultaneously, it demands cutting off water, electricity and mobile phones throughout the island. Electricity, water and mobile phones can all be reconnected in liberated areas, but they must remain disconnected in area the PLA has not liberated, particularly mobile phones."
The focus on phone service is because the Chinese had trouble seizing Hong Kong. There was so much connectivity that the world could see the disaster that was taking place.
For the last piece in the puzzle, the amphibian assault, Bass notes that there have been three calendar months a year that work - April, May and August. The Taiwan Strait is 110 miles wide and has 20-foot tidal surges, aggressive currents and miles of mud bogs when troops land. Navy forces need specific dates and times of landing to achieve success.
Once an amphibious assault is achieved, Xi will be ready to roll at any time.
China has already taken care to act on most new laws that need to be enacted prior to an attack on Taiwan. Look for the last one to be submitted and approved this month. China is building air raid shelters, combat hospitals and announcing blood donations. In May, Xi ordered Chinese banks to risk-assess and insulate against "severe" U.S. sanctions.
"What would precipitate severe U.S. sanctions?" Bass asked his audience. "We are sending our policy staff there with knee pads begging for meetings."
This only gives you the "flavor" of this presentation. Bass is not some paranoid. He has all his faculties. He's a serious man. He seems certain that Xi is as serious as a heart attack about annexing Taiwan - soon.
Watch the detailed analysis below. It is long but worth your time for a better understanding of what is happening and how the average person doesn't have a clue what is really going on: