ARTICLE

In 2019, Israel Faces Dangers On Many Fronts

News Image By Yoav Limor/JNS.org January 04, 2019
Share this article:

The coming year is likely to be one of uncertainty ‎as Israel tries to walk the extremely fine line ‎between the highly volatile potential of conflict on all fronts, ‎and the IDF's clear superiority and ability to ‎generate deterrence.‎

Ostensibly, Israel has to strive to avoid a wide-‎scale conflict in 2019. This should be ‎doable as each foe, in every sector, currently has ‎far more pressing issues to deal with: Syria is reeling from a ‎bloody, seven-year civil war; Hezbollah is knee-deep ‎in financial problems and internal Lebanese ‎political turmoil; Hamas is trying to improve the ‎dire economic situation in the Gaza Strip; and the ‎Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is focused on ‎trying to make heads or tails of the impending post-Mahmoud Abbas era. ‎


Add to that Israel's military power, and one can ‎understand why Israel's enemies are wary of ‎confrontation. Still, logic does not always prevail ‎in the Middle East, and each sector harbors a ‎significant chance of rapid ‎escalation, especially as all are under the menacing ‎specter of Iran, which is trying to increase its ‎regional influence.‎

This means that the Israeli challenge will be, first, ‎to avoid war; second, to win a war should one erupt; ‎and third, perhaps most important, to both ‎prevent Iran from entrenching itself militarily in ‎Syria and stop Hezbollah's armament efforts in ‎Lebanon, especially with respect to the Shiite ‎terrorist group's precision-missile program.‎

Israel will also have to carefully navigate its ‎policy in Gaza to ensure the desperation there does ‎not worsen, and equal prudence will be required in ‎the West Bank, where fighting terrorism while ‎minimizing the infringement on the civilian ‎Palestinian population's routine is crucial to ‎preventing another intifada. ‎


Israel will have to do all of this while contending ‎with complex geostrategic conditions, especially ‎given Donald Trump's decision to pull ‎American troops from Syria and the subsequent ‎increase in Russia's regional power. 

This will require not only diplomatically ‎navigating the complex equation between ‎Washington and Moscow, but also fostering closer ‎ties with the moderate Sunni axis, which, in turn, ‎is likely to increase friction with rogue states, ‎including Turkey. ‎

This fine line between opportunity and risk is one ‎Israel will have to walk alone, and it will have ‎only itself to count on, both diplomatically and ‎militarily. ‎

All this will take place against the backdrop of ‎what is expected to be a challenging year for Israel ‎regardless. The election campaign is already proving ‎to be a stormy one, and the IDF will likely be dragged into it. 



The new IDF chief of ‎staff, Aviv Kochavi, slated to take office in mid-January, will ‎have to maneuver between all the external and ‎internal threats and challenges, including the ‎questions raised about the army's war readiness, ‎the need to formulate a multi-year budget, ‎and the personnel crisis brewing in the military's ‎regular and standing ranks.‎

Defense and security issues will continue to ‎dominate the political and public agenda in 2019, on ‎every level. The good news is that chances of war ‎are slim. The bad news is that, given the regional ‎upheaval, no security assessment can be taken for ‎granted.‎

Originally published at JNS.org - reposted with permission.




Other News

August 22, 2019The Resurrection Of Socialism In America

Socialism always flourishes in a secular society. And the reason is simple... socialism goes hand in hand with abandoning God and worshipi...

August 22, 2019World Vision's Deal With The Devil

World Vision, a multi-billion dollar international charity founded on evangelical Christian principles, has made quite a few deals with th...

August 22, 2019End Which Occupation?

For most Palestinians the occupation began in 1948 when Israel was born, and only continued in 1967 when Israel took over the West Bank. T...

August 22, 2019Congresswoman Tlaib's Israel Trip Hosts Tell You Everything You Need To Know

First, they praised the terrorist who murdered a US senator's niece. Then they were chosen by Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) to organi...

August 21, 201911 Reasons Why Experts Believe That A U.S. Economic Crisis Is Imminent

Suddenly the mainstream media is filled with stories about when the next recession will begin and the effect that this may have on Preside...

August 21, 2019Will Israel Launch A Military Ground Operation In Gaza?

Some Israelis are calling for a military ground invasion into Gaza to damage, or even eradicate, Hamas. The question many are asking: Does...

August 21, 2019Why Endless Wars Can't Be Ended

Wars have shaped history, but the ways wars are fought evolve. Americans have grown accustomed to relatively short, high-intensity conflic...

Get Breaking News